• Sangita Mukherjee
• 21 Oct, 2025

§  Lebanon crisis deepens as Israel bombs Beirut suburbs. Hezbollah faces ultimatum from US envoy. Lebanese Army deploys south

§  Israeli military strikes southern Lebanon again. President Aoun seeks negotiations while US threatens war if Hezbollah doesn’t disarm

§  Israel launches new air strikes on southern Lebanon as US envoy warns of major confrontation. Lebanon faces pressure to disarm Hezbollah amid ceasefire violations. Latest updates October 2025

Southern Lebanon echoed with explosions on Monday as Israeli warplanes launched a fresh wave of air strikes, intensifying regional tensions and raising serious questions about the fragile ceasefire that has barely held since November 2024. The attacks targeted multiple locations across Iqlim Al-Tuffah with Israeli fighter jets pounding the towns of Jarmaq and Aishiyeh in the Jezzine district with at least eight separate raids, while reconnaissance drones buzzed ominously over Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.

The escalation comes at a critical moment as Lebanon faces mounting international pressure to disarm Hezbollah with the United States delivering stark warnings that failure to act could trigger another devastating war. President Joseph Aoun is racing against time to broker indirect negotiations with Israel while simultaneously navigating domestic political minefields, as his government struggles to convince the powerful Iran-backed militia to surrender its weapons.

With ceasefire violations becoming a near-daily reality and diplomatic efforts stalling, Lebanon finds itself trapped between Israeli military might and American ultimatums, desperately seeking a path forward that could spare the war-torn nation from another catastrophic conflict.

What’s Happening in Lebanon Right Now.?

The Israel Defense Forces confirmed striking what they called “terrorist sites” and Hezbollah infrastructure across southern Lebanon on Monday, claiming the group is actively rebuilding its military capabilities in violation of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement. Israeli military spokesperson stated bluntly: “The Israeli Army will continue to work to eliminate any threat and protect the State of Israel”.

But the reality on the ground paints a more complex picture. Since the ceasefire took effect nearly a year ago, Israel has conducted approximately 950 projectile attacks and over 100 air strikes on Lebanese territory, according to monitoring by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Lebanese authorities report that more than 270 people have been killed and around 850 wounded by Israeli military actions since the truce began with UN human rights experts verifying that at least 107 of those killed were civilians.

The current escalation coincides with renewed American pressure on Beirut to enforce state control over all weapons in the country. President Aoun spent Monday in high-level consultations with Lebanese officials, including Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri who serves as the crucial intermediary between Hezbollah and foreign powers. The discussions focused on Aoun’s controversial initiative to launch indirect negotiations with Israel, running parallel to the recent Gaza ceasefire agreement.

·       An official Lebanese source told @ArabNews: “Lebanon is trying to find a way out of the impasse it faces. Claims of obstruction to implementing arms control under state authority are untrue. The Lebanese Army has a plan in place and is carrying it out”. The source revealed that the army submits monthly reports on its progress south of the Litani River to the Council of Ministers and will continue doing so through year’s end.

Why Is the US Threatening Lebanon.?

Thomas Barrack, the US envoy to Syria, issued a stark warning on Monday that sent shockwaves through Lebanese political circles. In a lengthy social media post, Barrack declared: “If Beirut fails to take action on disarmament, Hezbollah’s military wing will inevitably face a major confrontation with Israel at a moment of Israel’s strength and a point of weakness for the Iranian-backed Hezbollah”.

The American envoy’s message was unambiguous and alarming. He argued that while Syria is stabilizing through normalization with neighbors including Israel and Turkey, Lebanon must follow suit by disarming Hezbollah and initiating security discussions with Israel. Barrack emphasized that “regional partners are ready to invest in Lebanon, provided that Lebanon regains its monopoly on legitimate force under the sole control of the Lebanese Armed Forces”.

But the threat embedded in his statement was impossible to miss: “If Beirut continues to hesitate, Israel may act unilaterally, and the consequences will be dire”. Barrack warned that if Israel launches a serious military attack and Hezbollah loses territory, political power or reputation, the group might seek to postpone parliamentary elections scheduled for next May to rebuild its military strength.

This, he cautioned, would trigger “major chaos within Lebanon, reigniting sectarian mistrust” and could undermine public confidence in the state while inviting regional intervention that threatens “to push Lebanon from crisis to complete institutional collapse”.

The American pressure reflects a broader regional strategy following President Donald Trump’s mediation of the Gaza ceasefire. Washington is leveraging this momentum to reshape the Middle East security architecture with Lebanon’s disarmament of Hezbollah positioned as a critical pillar.

Will Lebanon Disarm Hezbollah.?

This remains the billion-dollar question at the heart of Lebanon’s existential crisis. President Aoun has proposed a framework where former Hezbollah fighters could potentially be integrated into the Lebanese Armed Forces, though he emphasized this would not create a separate autonomous military unit. However, the path forward is fraught with obstacles.

Currently, Lebanon has approximately 9,300 soldiers deployed south of the Litani River. Lebanese officials acknowledge that increasing this number requires resources the army simply doesn’t possess. “It has specific needs and is requesting assistance, which all parties are aware of,” the official source told @ArabNews.

Adding complexity to the situation, the UN Security Council has decided to withdraw UNIFIL forces from Lebanon by the end of next year and the Lebanese army’s operations south of the Litani are conducted in coordination with UNIFIL. The withdrawal could leave a dangerous security vacuum.

Despite these challenges, the official source insisted that “the concept of negotiations with Israel exists on the Lebanese side and is approved by all parties including Hezbollah, as the choice is between war and diplomacy”. This represents a significant claim, as Hezbollah has historically rejected any normalization with Israel.

In September 2025, Lebanon’s government approved the army’s five-phase plan to disarm Hezbollah and bring all weapons under state control, despite walkouts by Shiite ministers aligned with the group. The roadmap begins with completing disarmament south of the Litani River, then expands northward through successive phases covering the entire country.

Hezbollah’s response has been defiant. The group declared the government decision a “major sin” and announced it would “treat the decision as if it did not exist”. Hezbollah insists it will retain its weapons until Israel withdraws from five occupied border outposts in southern Lebanon and ceases its strikes.

What Did President Aoun Actually Say About Israel.?

President Joseph Aoun’s remarks last week sparked intense debate across Lebanon. Speaking to the Association of Economic Journalists, Aoun emphasized: “The region is moving toward negotiations aimed at establishing peace and stability. Through dialogue and negotiations, which will be determined at the appropriate time, solutions can be reached”.

·       Drawing on historical precedent, Aoun noted that “the Lebanese state has previously negotiated with Israel under US and UN auspices, resulting in the maritime border demarcation agreement announced from UNIFIL headquarters in Naqoura”. He posed the rhetorical question: “What prevents a similar process from happening again to resolve the outstanding issues, especially since the war went in vain.?”.

·       Aoun’s argument centered on pragmatism: “Israel resorted to negotiating with Hamas because it had no other option after experiencing war and destruction. Today, the situation in the region is one of compromise and negotiations are necessary”. He expressed hope that “we will reach a time when Israel will stop its military actions against Lebanon so that the negotiation process can start”.

However, following widespread publicity and claims that his comments signaled a policy shift, the presidential office issued clarifications. Officials emphasized that Lebanon rejects direct negotiations with Israel and that Aoun was referring to indirect talks through mediators aimed at resolving border disputes. The Lebanese foreign minister intervened to explain that normalization with Israel remains firmly rejected.

The delicate balancing act reflects Aoun’s impossible position: trying to satisfy American and Israeli demands for progress while not alienating Hezbollah and its supporters, who view any talks with Israel as capitulation and betrayal.

How Are Lebanese People Responding.?

The Lebanese population remains deeply divided on the path forward. When US envoy Tom Barrack visited southern Lebanon in August, he was met with protests in multiple towns. In Khiam, demonstrators waved Hezbollah flags, held pictures of fighters killed in the conflict and stood near graffiti reading “America is the great Satan” and “Barak is animal”.

Bilal Kashmar, an official from the southern municipalities union, said dozens gathered to voice opposition to Barrack’s visit and criticize Washington’s “biased policies”. The protests forced Barrack to cut short his visit and cancel planned stops.

Yet other segments of Lebanese society desperately want Hezbollah disarmed, viewing the group’s weapons as the source of Lebanon’s prolonged instability and the reason Israel continues to attack. Grand Mufti of Lebanon Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, meeting with Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari, emphasized that “security and development in Lebanon can only be achieved through comprehensive stability and the state’s full assumption of its national responsibilities”.

The statement stressed support for “the Lebanese Army and other security forces, as well as their backing for extending state authority across all Lebanese territory, based on the army’s efforts to implement government decisions concerning the monopoly on arms”.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam acknowledged that Aoun’s initiative aims to urge the United States to step up and save stalled negotiations with Israel. Salam noted that indirect negotiations in Naqoura between Lebanon and Israel through the ceasefire monitoring mechanism have “failed to stop Israel’s violations despite Lebanon’s commitment to the ceasefire”.

What’s Israel’s Position on All This.?

Israel has welcomed Lebanon’s stated plans to disarm Hezbollah while simultaneously maintaining military pressure through continued strikes. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office issued a statement acknowledging Lebanon’s decision as “a significant step toward Lebanese sovereignty” and expressing readiness to support disarmament efforts.

Israel pledged to implement “phased reduction of Israel Defense Forces presence coordinated through US-led security mechanisms, contingent on Lebanese Armed Forces implementing Hezbollah’s disarmament”. However, Israel’s actions tell a different story. Nearly a year after the ceasefire, Israeli forces still occupy five positions along the Lebanese border, well past the withdrawal deadline that expired in February 2025.

Israeli officials argue their continued presence and strikes are necessary because Hezbollah is rebuilding its infrastructure. They claim the Lebanese government and army aren’t doing enough to prevent Hezbollah’s regrouping, justifying Israel’s unilateral enforcement actions.

An Israeli official stated that before peace talks can progress, Hezbollah must disarm completely, adding candidly: “This will be very hard and we do not know if it will succeed”. The admission reveals Israeli skepticism about whether diplomatic pressure alone can achieve Hezbollah’s disarmament.

Meanwhile, analysts note that Israel’s strategy in Lebanon may serve as a blueprint for Gaza. Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, described the Lebanon scenario as a “lessfire” rather than a ceasefire, “essentially giving leeway to Israeli forces to strike whenever they deem a threat without a full resumption of conflict”.

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What Role Is Iran Playing.?

Iran remains Hezbollah’s primary patron and has made its position crystal clear. Following Lebanon’s government decision to approve the disarmament plan in September, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated bluntly that these efforts “will fail” and that Hezbollah “has recovered and is in full force”.

This declaration of full Iranian support for Hezbollah prompted sharp reactions from Lebanese officials. Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji summoned the Iranian ambassador to express disapproval of Iran’s interference in Lebanese affairs. Lebanese MP Ghayath Yazbeck called Araghchi’s comments “a complete violation of the dignity of a sovereign and independent state” and urged filing a complaint with the UN Security Council.

Despite international sanctions, Tehran continues funding Hezbollah’s militia operations, according to US envoy Barrack. This ongoing Iranian support complicates efforts to disarm the group, as Hezbollah can rely on external backing even as its domestic position weakens following heavy losses in the 2024 conflict with Israel.

Analysts suggest that Iran’s diminished regional influence following the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria and reduced capabilities to support proxies may eventually force Hezbollah to consider scaling down its armed presence. However, for now, Tehran’s rhetoric remains defiant.

What Happens Next.?

Lebanon stands at a critical crossroads with no easy path forward. The government must navigate between conflicting demands: American and Israeli insistence on rapid Hezbollah disarmament versus the political impossibility of forcibly confronting the heavily armed group that still commands significant domestic support, particularly among Shiite communities.

President Aoun’s diplomatic initiative represents an attempt to find middle ground through indirect negotiations with Israel, similar to the process that produced the 2022 maritime border agreement. However, success requires cooperation from all parties—Israel must halt strikes, Hezbollah must genuinely commit to disarmament and the United States must provide resources and political cover for the transition.

The Lebanese Army’s five-phase disarmament plan provides a roadmap but implementation faces enormous practical and political obstacles. The army lacks sufficient personnel and equipment, UNIFIL forces are withdrawing, and Hezbollah shows no signs of voluntarily surrendering weapons it views as essential for defending Lebanon against Israeli aggression.

If diplomacy fails, the consequences could be catastrophic. US envoy Barrack’s warnings of potential Israeli unilateral military action are not idle threats. Israel has demonstrated its willingness and capability to inflict devastating damage on Lebanon, as evidenced by the 2024 conflict that killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands.

Yet another war would be equally disastrous for Israel, requiring prolonged military engagement and international criticism while failing to resolve underlying issues. The question remains whether all parties can find the political will to break the cycle of violence before another explosion of conflict becomes inevitable.

Conclusion

The situation in southern Lebanon represents a dangerous stalemate with potentially explosive consequences. Nearly a year after a ceasefire supposedly ended the latest Israel-Hezbollah conflict, the reality on the ground is one of persistent low-intensity warfare, with Israeli strikes killing hundreds of civilians and Hezbollah maintaining its weapons despite international pressure.

President Joseph Aoun’s call for renewed negotiations with Israel marks a pragmatic recognition that military solutions have failed to bring security or stability to Lebanon. His willingness to publicly acknowledge the need for diplomatic engagement, despite domestic political risks, demonstrates courage and leadership at a critical moment.

However, words alone cannot resolve Lebanon’s existential crisis. The path to genuine peace requires concrete actions from all parties: Israel must commit to respecting Lebanese sovereignty and withdrawing from occupied territory, Hezbollah must accept that retaining weapons indefinitely will only perpetuate Lebanon’s nightmare and the United States must provide meaningful support beyond threats and ultimatums.

The Lebanese people who have endured decades of conflict, occupation, civil war, economic collapse and political dysfunction, deserve better than to be caught in an endless cycle of violence driven by regional power struggles. They deserve a functioning state with a monopoly on legitimate force, economic opportunity and the simple dignity of security in their homes.

Whether Lebanon can achieve this vision or slide into yet another devastating war may be determined in the coming weeks and months. The stakes could not be higher, not just for Lebanon but for regional stability in an already volatile Middle East.

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